Research into the spatial and dynamic scaling structure of rainfall based on the analysis of large sets of high-resolution radar data. Of particular interest is the use of simplified versions of a cascade model for use in real-time applications, generating anisotropic fields, and the role of non-stationarity over large domains.
| STAHY2018 Stochastic simulations of rainfall |
| Seed, AW, C Draper, R Srikanthan, and M Menabde. 2000. 'A multiplicative broken‐line model for time series of mean areal rainfall', Water Resources Research, 36: 2395-99. |
| Seed,AW. 2003. 'A dynamic and spatial scaling approach to advection forecasting', Journal of Applied Meteorology, 42: 381-88. |
| Niemi, Tero J, Teemu Kokkonen, and Alan W Seed. 2014. 'A simple and effective method for quantifying spatial anisotropy of time series of precipitation fields', Water Resources Research, 50: 5906-25. |
Research into the use of the STEPS model to generate ensembles of rain fields that are conditioned on low-resolution fields (down-scaling) like ERA and GCM rainfall fields or simulations that are based on the parameters that are derived from an analysis of radar rainfall data for a significant storm for use in hydrological applications.
| Raut, Bhupendra A, Alan W Seed, Michael J Reeder, and Christian Jakob. 2018. 'A Multiplicative Cascade Model for High‐Resolution Space‐Time Downscaling of Rainfall', Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123: 2050-67. |
| Raut, Bhupendra A, Michael J Reeder, Christian Jakob, and Alan W Seed. 2019. 'Stochastic Space‐Time Downscaling of Rainfall Using Event‐Based Multiplicative Cascade Simulations', Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124: 3889-902. |
| Seed, A., P. Jordan, C. Pierce, M. Leonard, R. Nathan and E. Kordomenidi. 2014. Stochastic simulation of space-time rainfall patterns for the Brisbane river catchment. Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 2014, Engineers Australia Barton, ACT. |
High resolution forecasts of rainfall in the next 6 hours are needed as input for flash flood warning systems. I developed the first version of the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) in collaboration with the Met Office (U.K). STEPS represents a major advance in the science of stochastic space/time rainfall modelling and provides a robust and fast algorithm for generating large ensembles of forecasts. Licenses for STEPS have issued for use in Japan, Canada, Russia, Belgium, Finland, Singapore, and Korea. I provided technical support for the development of pySTEPS, the open-source version of STEPS.
| Bowler, Neill E, Clive E Pierce, and Alan W Seed. 2006. 'STEPS: A probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges an extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWP', Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: A journal of the atmospheric sciences, applied meteorology and physical oceanography, 132: 2127-55. |
| Seed, Alan W, Clive E Pierce, and Katie Norman. 2013. 'Formulation and evaluation of a scale decomposition‐based stochastic precipitation nowcast scheme', Water Resources Research, 49: 6624-41. |
| Pierce, Clive, Alan Seed, Sue Ballard, David Simonin, and Zhihong Li. 2012.'Nowcasting.' In: Doppler Radar Observations-Weather Radar, Wind Profiler, Ionospheric Radar, and Other Advanced Applications (IntechOpen). |
| Foresti,Loris, and Alan Seed. 2014. 'The effect of flow and orography on the spatial distribution of the very short-term predictability of rainfall from composite radar images', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18: 4671-86. |
| Foresti, Loris, Alan Seed, and Isztar Zawadzki. 2014.'Heuristic Probabilistic Forecasting Workshop Munich, Germany, 30-31 August 2014' |
| Foresti, Loris, and Alan Seed. 2015. 'On the spatial distribution of rainfall nowcasting errors due to orographic forcing', Meteorological Applications, 22: 60-74. |
| Foresti, L, M Reyniers, A Seed, and L Delobbe. 2015. 'Development and verification of a real-time stochastic precipitation nowcasting system for urban hydrology in Belgium', Hydrology & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12. |
| Shakti, P.C., Ryohei Misumi, Tsuyoshi Nakatani, Koyuru Iwanami, Masayuki Maki, Alan W Seed, and Kohin Hirano. 2015. 'Comparison of rainfall nowcasting derived from the STEPS model and JMA precipitation nowcasts', Hydrological Research Letters, 9: 54-60. |
| Pulkkinen, Seppo, Daniele Nerini, Andrés A Pérez Hortal, Carlos Velasco-Forero, Alan Seed, Urs Germann, and Loris Foresti. 2019. 'Pysteps: an open-source Python library for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting (v1. 0)', Geoscientific Model Development, 12: 4185-219. |
| Pudashine, Jayaram, Carlos Velasco-Forero, Mark Curtis, Adrien Guyot, Valentijn RN Pauwels, Jeffrey P Walker, and Alan Seed. 2021. 'Probabilistic attenuation nowcasting for the 5G telecommunication networks', IEEE Antennas and Wireless Propagation Letters, 20: 973-77. |
Weather radar remains a key source of high-resolution rainfall data that are suitable for urban hydrological applications. I undertake research into algorithms that are needed for data quality control and radar rainfall estimation. I am especially interested in developing robust algorithms and managing the overall complexity of the system. I provided technical oversight for Rainfields, the Bureau’s operational national radar rainfall estimation system. Rainfields includes a suite of about 50 algorithms to perform quality control on the incoming radar data and to use the data to estimate the rain rate on the ground. The use of commercial microwave links to estimate rainfall in urban areas and how to optimally blend fields that have an error structure that scales are also areas of interest to me.
| Chumchean, Siriluk, Alan Seed, and Ashish Sharma. 2006. 'An integrated approach to error correction for real-time radar-rainfall estimation', Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 23: 67-79. |
| Peter, Justin R, Alan Seed, and Peter J Steinle. 2013. 'Application of a Bayesian classifier of anomalous propagation to single-polarization radar reflectivity data', Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 30: 1985-2005. |
| Rennie, SJ, M Curtis, J Peter, AW Seed, PJ Steinle, and G Wen. 2015. 'Bayesian echo classification for Australian single-polarization weather radar with application to assimilation of radial velocity observations', Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 32: 1341-55. |
| Renzullo, L, C Velasco-Forero, and A Seed. 2017. 'Blending radar, NWP and satellite data for real-time ensemble rainfall analysis: a scale-dependent method.'In.: Tech. Rep. EP174236, CSIRO, |
| Pudashine, Jayaram, Adrien Guyot, Aart Overeem, Valentijn RN Pauwels, Alan Seed, Remko Uijlenhoet, Mahesh Prakash, and Jeffrey P Walker. 2021. 'Rainfall retrieval using commercial microwave links: Effect of sampling strategy on retrieval accuracy', Journal of Hydrology: 126909. |